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  1. #1

    Question The future of Web Hosting

    What do you all predict to be the future of web hosting? In particular of smaller web hosts. Im just curious if others out there in the trenches sense a looming shake up - or mass wash out or ... whatever. Ive been working in the industry for quite a while now, mostly tech support and server admin and it seems to me as if its just not as alive now as it has been in the past.

    Maybe its just me getting burnt out. Anyway Id love to hear any one elses view of the business?

    Thanks

    _____
    Gromit
    Last edited by gromit; 09-30-2002 at 12:04 AM.

  2. #2
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    I think that the bigger webhosts will create big datacenters, the smaller ones will rent "suites/hotels" from them. Then smaller companies will resell their servers, and then they will offer reseller accounts, who offer virtual accounts.

    So basiclly, webhosting is going to same the same, however get bigger, bigger, and bigger!

  3. #3
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    If I knew, I wouldn't be lurking here

  4. #4
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    Hey.. your 1000th post! Congrats

  5. #5
    You forgot cheaper, cheaper, and cheaper!

    Btw congrats on hitting 1000.

  6. #6
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    *

    phpcoder, congrats on 1000.... And I still don't know what the future holds...

  7. #7
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    Anyone out there that does know what the future of web hosting will be...Please feel free to elaborate

  8. #8
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    I think it depends on where the internet goes, Personally I think in the next 5 years bandwidth will be used alot more (thats pretty predictable) I also think that .Net could be big, sooo... I dont think that its easy to predict something as ever changing as the internet.

  9. #9
    I think phpcoder has a good point about what direction we are heading though your right its hard too predict. I was just working off my own sense of things - seems like, at least the groups im working with, are seing decreasing sales and increasing cancellations.

    Of course it could be chalked up to shoddy customer support etc but it seems to me that we just dont have the level of sales activity as we used to and many of the cancellations seem to be domains that were hardly every used. Is there a decrease in the growth of web hosting, a temporary lull - or is it just our own businesses that is seeing a decline.

  10. #10
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    I think pretty quick you're going to see "virtual dedicated" servers.

    If you're not farmiliar, this is where you have a large server with one operatiing system host lots of mini-operating systems. So each user with a virtual-dedicated account appears to have they're very own machine.

    And of course, things will continue to get cheaper and cheaper.

    Both of which are bad news for me But oh well.

  11. #11
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    Originally posted by upnix
    I think pretty quick you're going to see "virtual dedicated" servers.

    If you're not farmiliar, this is where you have a large server with one operatiing system host lots of mini-operating systems. So each user with a virtual-dedicated account appears to have they're very own machine.

    And of course, things will continue to get cheaper and cheaper.

    Both of which are bad news for me But oh well.
    Ummm, we have seen these for years. Nothing new.

    You may see many more host use a VDS implimented like Sphera's plan to where it is a lower cost, less robust option then ensim, but can still offer isolation from a standard shared solution, there by offering a basic SLA.

  12. #12
    Originally posted by phpcoder
    I think that the bigger webhosts will create big datacenters, the smaller ones will rent "suites/hotels" from them. Then smaller companies will resell their servers, and then they will offer reseller accounts, who offer virtual accounts.
    So everything will be as today?

  13. #13
    I think one of the major difference will be software.

    Userfriendly control panels, site creation tools and much more. Don't get me wrong, this tools already do exist, but they will be much more integrated and user friendly. The software industry is already on the way (currently at 30%), but hosting software is somewhat behind that.

  14. #14
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    Five years from now, wow thats a long way away... Look back to five years ago, look where we where!!!

    All the tv broadcasters, radio stations, telephone calls will all run totally off the internet.
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  15. #15
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    Possibly...
    Hostime Managed Hosting
    Opening the bridge between your business and the world.
    http://www.hostime.com

  16. #16
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    5years from now we will have smart chips in our hands with one global currency and tracking system so big brother can rape us all of any freedom, privacy, religious practices, and making money without having to pay taxes(there goes the reseller industry)
    www.boxedhost.com
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  17. #17

    Re: The future of Web Hosting

    Originally posted by gromit
    What do you all predict to be the future of web hosting?
    All the kids will grow up and start college, find little time to run the hosting companies, they'll go under and new kids will take their place.

  18. #18
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    I think web hosting and its industry will grow indefinately over the years. Many companies will shift their offline sales onto online sales, their inventory systems controlled via the Internet. Many of everday lifestyles will become virtual, from buying lotto tickets online, to visiting the zoo online!!

    So for the web hosting and web development companies will end up reaping from the benefits of companies shelling out thousands upto millions of dollars.

    I think if you stick with it, everyone on this board will be making millions. If you do it right of course. We're already 75% to the million part
    Kaumil P.

  19. #19
    You never know what's gonna happen but still... I really don't think that 5 years ago, I could possibly imagine myself that on September 30th, 2002 I will get new sneakers from www.sketchers.com and not from nearest mall.

    Internet already now is a big part of our lives (especially if you're running a webhosting company) Imagine the possibilities!!!

  20. #20
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    Negative, but maybe true

    I've had this in the back of my head for a while, and it may mean the downfall of our businesses but it's just a thought.

    I see everyone being connected to the internet via high speed lines, such as T1's and the like. Forget dsl, cable, and dial ups, they will be a thing of the past since the price of lines will drop considerably as tech always does over time.

    With high speed line access to the internet, someone or some company will come up with a simple external addon you can place on your computer (such as a modem, backup system, etc.) which will provide your desktop with it's own DNS, IP and mail. Inside of this little accessory will be your web site where everyone can access as they do now.

    Since the cost of high speed internet will be going down and becoming part of everyone's home, hosting will become a thing of the past since people can just do it themselves. Why hassle with a 3rd party and pay monthly fees when you can just purchase an inexpensive add-on to your desktop, and pay your ISP a small or non existent charge to host your site.

    It seems to me this would be a very easy thing for ISP's to do, though I'm sure cost right now is a huge problem. I know a full T1 to my home office is around $1200/mo from Sprint. Before any of this takes place, everyone will have to have access to lines for a very, very cheap price. I'm sure it will take at least another 5 years if not more for T1's to become affordable to the average home user.

    If this does happen, I guess we'll see a lot of competition among the ISP's to get T1's into everyone's house. At that point, we will still be hosting companies but at a different level. Rather than just offering space and bandwidth to a person for $5/mo (or whatever), we will all have our different quality and pricing of lines to get into the user's home.

    Possible? I guess we'll find out

  21. #21
    We'll that last post did it - I'm taking the money I had saved up to start my host and will be putting it into the stock of T-1 companies instead .

  22. #22
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    braysurdi: Im not sure about this(not dig, just my point of view), I agree that 1gb lines will be a standard or something similar but i dont think personal connections will host websites

    Remember that if you all have the same type of connection(eg 1gb) then as soon as two people hit your web site then it will start to slow down since they are trying to pull 2x what you have and that is why web hosts will always stay in the market.

    Web hosting will turn into application hosting, for example Microsoft Office will be online and you will be able to subscribe to it instead of buying the cds. Games like quake3 will also be subscription and will run on some sort of interactive server side language...

    Just me guessing here :-) I love these posts.
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  23. #23
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    Vsector,

    So you are saying 2 people visiting a site running on 1.5mbps will slow down the connection? I guess I'd have to disagree about that since many small hosting companies (including ours) push 300GB/mo through their machines with no load on the CPU or RAM. Just an FYI, we host about 1500 domains and average 10% CPU with 0.75 RAM.

    Yes, I see people playing quake in the future like they do now. I play starcraft all the time (username ClusterPhuck, need a light?) but I don't have to pay for a subscription for online gaming

    In the end, it's just a theory and we really have no idea what will happen. Heck, I hope it doesn't happen or I'll have to find a new business to jump into

    Eric

  24. #24
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    Yes thats exactly what i was saying, the site will slow down. You see, if 2 people access the site both with 1gb connections at the same time then they together are trying to burst 2gb. The person hosting the site is on the same "personal" 1gb connection and therefore will only have 512MB for each.

    You see what im trying to get at?
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  25. #25
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    You forget that High Speed service providers do not allow servers to be running on their connection. Companies will charge extra, it's always going to be like that.
    Kaumil P.

  26. #26
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    There is also the issue that while people might be ABLE to host webpages on their home connections, doing it WELL is another matter. Want SSL ? PHP ? ASP/PERL/Java/etc ? I don't think Joe-average home user is up to it.

    Even if there WERE a "black box" to hold a webpage, it really wouldnt be too much competition--since high speed connections are asymetrical whenever a high rate of outward transfer isnt needed.

    (Ive seen 300k out and up to 7MBs in on some connections).

    and broadband connections will continue to do that. No NEED for high speed outward bound speeds, since very few people will need it, and those that do will pay more for it.

  27. #27
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    Im sorry,, but i think the truth of the matter is that the only sure thing about the future of webhosting is that it most definately has a future and that is much more than i can say for many industries right now..

    As far as the individual details of that future, if anyone knew that they would be stupid as sh*t to reveal it wouldnt they

    just my 2cents
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  28. #28
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    Re: Negative, but maybe true

    Originally posted by braysurdi
    I've had this in the back of my head for a while, and it may mean the downfall of our businesses but it's just a thought.

    I see everyone being connected to the internet via high speed lines, such as T1's and the like. Forget dsl, cable, and dial ups, they will be a thing of the past since the price of lines will drop considerably as tech always does over time.

    With high speed line access to the internet, someone or some company will come up with a simple external addon you can place on your computer (such as a modem, backup system, etc.) which will provide your desktop with it's own DNS, IP and mail. Inside of this little accessory will be your web site where everyone can access as they do now.

    Since the cost of high speed internet will be going down and becoming part of everyone's home, hosting will become a thing of the past since people can just do it themselves. Why hassle with a 3rd party and pay monthly fees when you can just purchase an inexpensive add-on to your desktop, and pay your ISP a small or non existent charge to host your site.

    It seems to me this would be a very easy thing for ISP's to do, though I'm sure cost right now is a huge problem. I know a full T1 to my home office is around $1200/mo from Sprint. Before any of this takes place, everyone will have to have access to lines for a very, very cheap price. I'm sure it will take at least another 5 years if not more for T1's to become affordable to the average home user.

    If this does happen, I guess we'll see a lot of competition among the ISP's to get T1's into everyone's house. At that point, we will still be hosting companies but at a different level. Rather than just offering space and bandwidth to a person for $5/mo (or whatever), we will all have our different quality and pricing of lines to get into the user's home.

    Possible? I guess we'll find out
    =(

    scary thought to me. if this were to ever happen, i would hope that this does not happen for atleast another 10 years.

  29. #29
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    Vsector,

    I guess I'm lost with your comments. If a site is 1mb in size, and 2 people access it with t1 speeds, there is a 2mbps burst for 1 second. How is one second going to decrease latency? Even if 60 people accessed the site every minute on the minute (BTW, that's 90,000 visitors per day), the site would not be slow with a T1

    What you are saying just doesn't make sense to me, otherwise people on high speed internet connections (ie cable) would slow down a server MORE than people using dial ups

    Hostingplex,

    Why do you think Sprint will charge extra for a T1 whether you use it for personal internet access or to host a server. They quoted me the exact same number either way.

    Oh well, it is just a theory and I'm sure it won't be the standard

  30. #30
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    I could be way wrong with this since im not as experienced as some on this board,, BUT....

    For the most part what i see is this:
    Most major bandwidth providors are themselves, owned by, a sister company of, or merged with, or somehow intangled with the very companies providing home internet access right?

    So your telling me they are going to drop a multi-million if not billion dollar side to there company so that they can provide a smaller scale version to the general public?? This doesnt make sense to me.. and in any case surely this would effect the turn over rate of hosting accounts created, bandwidth used, etc.etc.etc..

    The majority of the profit is generated from a turn over rate of new, cancelled, pending, and unused accounts and overcharged bandwidth that is NO WHERE NEAR used!! If they provide such access directly to home users they loose the very tactics they are using to make money... Im trying to explain my thoughts the best i can ,but im starting to confuse myself now so i will stop...

    But i guess what im trying to say is that i dont see how it could ever be as profitable and REALISTIC as the way the industry is setup now,, could it be more profitable, MAYBE, that is if it was realistic.. and to that its not....

    What i am assuming will happen is that the market will simply upscale,, ex.. did hosting companies always offer the connections they offer now?? NO, its evolved, so yes maybe one day people will have direct T1 lines to there homes,, well then most likely data centers will have ST1(super T1) line..lol

    I dont think the market structure will change until its dried up, used up, and unprofitable, and we are no where near this...
    I mean with the invention of cellphones we did not disconnect phone lines.... will this happen someday, possibley(unfortunately). But you better believe it wont happen until phone companies have gotten every last penny they can out of direct lines...

    i think thats worth at least 24cents
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