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  1. #1
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    There is not an oil shortage...

    I spoke to a top oil engineer today. I am of course withholding any details on who this person is or what companies this person actually works for.

    To pull oil, you need pressure. It's not actually depth that is the problem. There is plenty of oil within reach, just no pressure. By the time the pressure runs out, you have only gained about 15% of what is there. New technologies are now in testing to increase pressure, and to allow access to another 80% of what is there. This means we go back to all the old oil reserves and change out old equipment with the new technologies. So lo and behold, if we run out, theres another 85% of oil in the oil pools. They are NOT dry like we have been told, we are NOT out of oil, far from it.

    I just thought this was a very interesting tidbit to pass on. Many here may already know much of the oil is merely impossible to get out with current technologies in use, but many more people think we are actually running dry, which is NOT the case.

    Also based off existing accessible oil number, http://www.ncpa.org/pub/bg/bg159/index.html#c

    Scaremongers are fond of reminding us that the total amount of oil in the Earth is finite and cannot be replaced during the span of human life. This is true; yet estimates of the world’s total oil endowment have grown faster than humanity can pump petroleum out of the ground.16

    The Growing Endowment of Oil.

    Estimates of the total amount of oil resources in the world grew throughout the 20th century [see Figure III].


    In May 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that the world’s total endowment of oil amounted to 60 billion barrels.17
    In 1950, geologists estimated the world’s total oil endowment at around 600 billion barrels.
    From 1970 through 1990, their estimates increased to between 1,500 and 2,000 billion barrels.
    In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey raised the estimate to 2,400 billion barrels, and their most recent estimate (2000) was of a 3,000-billion-barrel endowment.
    By the year 2000, a total of 900 billion barrels of oil had been produced.18 Total world oil production in 2000 was 25 billion barrels.19 If world oil consumption continues to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year, and no further resources are discovered, the world’s oil supply will not be exhausted until the year 2056.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
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    That is certainly the case, as drilling technology improves more oil can be recovered, considerably increasing recoverable reserves.

    As far as a shortage goes, that is a bit more complicated. A shortage has more to do with the ability to supply demand by pumping rather than the total size of the reserve. So even if there is a large recoverable reserve that does not mean the oil can be pumped and delivered to customers in the most efficient time given geo-political factors

  3. #3
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    I'm all for improving technologies to make current methods of extracting oil more efficient. I'm also for moving quickly towards greener energies, and ending our addiction to middle east oil.

    My name is Aussie Bob and I'm a greenie*

    *but I didn't drink the Al Gore Koolaid
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  4. #4
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    Al Gore Koolaid...lol... Did you come up with that all by your lonesome Bob?

  5. #5
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    i am ok with drinking al gore koolaid. as long as it provides we become free of oil dependency.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Webdude View Post
    Al Gore Koolaid...lol... Did you come up with that all by your lonesome Bob?
    I think so, but I might have heard it somewhere else. Not sure.
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  7. #7
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    i am ok with drinking al gore koolaid. as long as it provides we become free of oil dependency.
    And as long as it doesn't actually taste like Al Gore. *shudder*


  8. #8
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    Sep 2006
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    Cooking oil engines, anyone?
    Ryan G.
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  9. #9
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    Aug 2005
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    New Jersey
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    Do most people think the price of gas/oil is increasing due to an oil shortage? If that was the case, wouldn't the price of oil in terms of gold also be increasing a significant amount? The Wall Street Journal published an article about this back in January. The chart is quite interesting. The cost of oil has increased by something like 350% in the past 10 years while the cost in terms of gold has remained constant.

    Our government is causing massive inflation and the rest of the world is beginning to lose faith in the US dollar.
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  10. #10
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    May 2008
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    I have a friend living in Canada and from what I hear, they're paying near $6 a gallon. Interesting thing about that is the fact that there oil comes FROM Canada. Pumped in Canada. Refined in Canada. Transported within Canada. 6 dollars a gallon. Over in the UK it's double that.

    Granted minimum wage in these places are a lot higher the, US seems to have much lower gas prices. I'm personally paying 3.70 a gallon here in Arizona.

    The unfortunate thing is that state to state, city to city and even block to block gas prices are always different. I can get a gallon for 3.70 on one corner, and across the street it's 3.75.

    There's no doubt this summer gas prices will sky rocket. Hopefully by within a year (or before we start paying in limbs for gas), we'll have perfected the technology to get more gas from our drills.

  11. #11
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    Of course there's not an oil shortage...but our world governments can't tell us that....they make way too much money in taxes from fuel revenue.

    They only release so much into the market to make it look like there's a shortage..hence the price rise in gasoline and other fuels.

    owm
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  12. #12
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    It's too bad I'm not on the other side of the oil market (selling it, rather than buying things produced from it)
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  13. #13
    I dont understand the need for this though. We have come so far in technology in the last two decades. Why is it that we need to spend money on oil which has more negatives then positives.

    Why not take the money and invest it into alternative options? We have hybrid cars now, but none on the road.

    It's time the car/oil industry has a major breakthrough and we as humans all learn about the hazards of using oil.

    I am not saying to stop production, but I think we're drilling oil for the wrong reasons in 2008. I was hoping most of the people should now be equipped with hybrids, electric cars but that dosn't seem like the case.

  14. #14
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    Aug 2005
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    Alcohol-powered cars, anyone?

  15. #15
    Join Date
    May 2001
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    Wisconsin, USA
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    So, increasing drilling technology may result in more oil produced from the same wells, and so on? But, what incentive do the oil companies have to actually *do* that? Same with what incentives do they have to increase refining capacity? (and I've heard plenty of reports on the bottleneck being refining limitations in recent years). Seriously...if they increase either....refining capacity and/or actual oil sucked up, what would happen? Oil prices would go down....because supply would be clearly adequate and delivery of refined product would be more adequate as well. And if oil prices go down, so do their profits! So what incentive do they have? NONE! In fact, it seems, especially with all the mergers over the past 10 or so years, that the only incentive remaining is to actually keep production down, and refining/delivery bottlenecked (or least keeping that appearance up). Then oil prices remain high, and so do their profits.

    I am sick of the prices as much as anyone, but the silver lining on this whole nasty situation may be greener alternatives becoming viable and hopefully taking over in the long run. Let's hope that does happen...sooner than later.
    Michael
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  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
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    433
    UnkleMunky, if they produce more oil then they make more money. It is simple as that, because the prices are higher.

    If they do not produce oil then demand will go down because of higher prices. Lower demand means that the price will go down for the oil. which is why you see OPEC not wanting to cut production because if prices get too high it will actually HURT them.

  17. #17
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    Feb 2003
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    Of course there's not an oil shortage...but our world governments can't tell us that....they make way too much money in taxes from fuel revenue.
    Completely wrong.

    Government fuel taxes (US) are flat-based, not percentage based. The tax for a gallon priced at $5 is the same as the tax for a gallon of gasoline priced at $10.

  18. #18
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    There IS an incentive... to hopefully stop the world from finding alternative forms of energy that dont include them. This problem developed because it was easier to ship "easy access" from over seas than to access the deeper "hard access" oil under our own land. Since the oil companies didnt invest in the type of new technology back then required to access our own oil, they are suddenly having to rush to do it now.

    Trust me, the oil corporate's worst nightmare is a world that doesnt need them anymore. If they dont find a way to access that oil before reliable alternatives to gasoline are found, they will lose a gigantic portion of their business. Obviously oil will still be needed. Pretty much everything you use is dirived from oil in one form or another, such as plastics, many computer parts, lubricants, tires, asphalt, etc. Many of the parts used in "green" energy will still require the oil companies..

    I say if nothing else, we still need green energy to take away much of the power oil companies and oil countries have abused.
    Last edited by Webdude; 05-25-2008 at 11:32 PM.

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