I would say that shared hosting is good for you right now. Even if you were getting your max 70k hits/mo. that only factors down to something like 2-3 hits per minute. You will have to watch it though..if you are getting all your hits for the day in a short time-frame then it could show up as a big spike on their shared machine and get your site suspended...if that's the case VPS all the way.
I've been with LunarPages and they've been solid for some time now. I would simply ask them the same question.
Based on the general character of your site I would say that Shared hosting would be fine. "Vanilla" web pages use very little in the way of CPU and primarily tax I/O. There are also some new ways you can save space and bandwidth these days by hosting images offsite at places like photobucket and the like. You can do a lot more for less these days than you used to be able to.
Rich WebsiteMaven - Web Hosting Reviews, Guides, and Advice to Build and Promote your Web Site
VPS offers you freedom of configuring things as you want.
But often it means you HAVE TO do more things.
(Although there are many kinds of VPS and some offer management services.)
Usually, shared hosting is much much easier and cheaper.
I've used LunarPages in the past, and they weren't bad at all.
Max (the owner?) was very kind and nice to me.
Their Forum is active and they have a good customer service specialist (They had one at least last time I checked).
Although they are not the cheapest in the budget hosting group, they are one of the well balanced one, I would say.
Currently I use DreamHost because they are a lot cheaper (with Promo codes)
and they offer more features, but they are having some trouble with Cisco and NetApp.
(PowWeb also had a huge problem with NetApp when I was using them as a primary host.)
And I recommend having a backup host.
Hosting packages are so cheap these days, it doesn't make sense to use a single host and suffer from their problem/incompetence/ethical-problems/and-so-on.
With a backup host, you can switch the host very quickly if something goes wrong.
In other words, the host can't take your site as the "hostage", so to say.
You can also combine the strength of each host and avoid the weak area.
For example, I don't use the mail server of PowWeb because they are unreliable.
But for https, I use PowWeb, because DreamHost doesn't offer free shared HTTPS.
(The lack of Shared SSL is one of the only a few things I don't like about DreamHost.)
the other thing you need to consider is, your technical knowledge to manager the server... vps is just like a dedicated server your technical knowledge will become a factor.. can you support a server with your current skills (troubleshoot, patch..)
Well, I did some math and based on some of my site's stats, I'll get around 150 visits per hour, or average of 2.5 people per minute. Lunarpages says they support up to 50 simultaneous SQL connections, so I think I'm good.
My technical knowledge can handle a vps, but I really don't have the time to. To-do list is way too long as it is.