Well there are alot of ways to approach this. My suggestion to you would be to cut costs as much as possible...which seems thats what you are trying to do in the first place. I really don't think you need to start off with a dedicated solution at this point. See how much visitors and resource you use at the first few months. Then if you grow, let your hosting solution grow with you. Most providers will let you upgrade your service at anytime. There are reseller solutions out there if you are not technical savvy to handle a VPS solution. Reseller packages tend to offer more disk space and bandwidth for less. I would suggest look for a provider who is running a nice machine, since you will be on a shared platform to start off with. Furthermore, with a shared solution, you just want to make sure the machine you are on will be stable (so the company basically), you want to make sure that the support will be up to par...(reviews on the host can give you an idea) and ofcourse don't base your choice soley on pricing levels, as you may find yourself back here in a few months asking the same questions.
There are plenty of reliable providers out there, just have to do your research. Come up with a list of providers that you may want to use and weigh out the good and the bad between each and make your choice. As far as traffic goes...I nor anyone else can really say how much traffic you are going to get. That part is all up to you, and how you promote your new website. I would say start off with a reseller solution at first and work your way up. See how things go and just plan ahead.