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  1. #26
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    I think the tendency is that big companies take over all businesses at the end. I think in 200 years there will not be any self-employed people anymore.

  2. #27
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    Originally posted by taketo
    I think the tendency is that big companies take over all businesses at the end. I think in 200 years there will not be any self-employed people anymore.
    I dont know about that. There has been no history of this taking place or anything to compare it to.

    I think people and skills will always be in demand either as a company or as an individual. It's just a matter of what demands there are in 10, 25, 50, 100, 200 years time.
    -- Matthew

  3. #28
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    Originally posted by Stormhosts
    I dont know about that. There has been no history of this taking place or anything to compare it to.

    I think people and skills will always be in demand either as a company or as an individual. It's just a matter of what demands there are in 10, 25, 50, 100, 200 years time.
    Well 200 years ago everything was made by little private people even steal products, tools and everything. Today there are medium or large businesses doing this. The small 5 man companies have died except for a few. Wait 200 years and there will be like 50 companies doing everything.

  4. #29
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    I guess it all depends on what type industry we are referring to. I just dont see that everything will be controlled by a handful of huge businesses in 200 years time.

    But... who knows what the future brings? We just need to be ready to use our skills what ever happens so we can support our lives and our families.
    -- Matthew

  5. #30
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    I don't have current figures, but I remember a few years ago reading that 70% of the economy is small to medium sized businesses. 70%. In my estimation, businesses with <50 employees are and will continue to be the backbone of the economy (in general). Your industry's mileage may vary.

    Vito
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  6. #31
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    Originally posted by Stormhosts
    I guess it all depends on what type industry we are referring to. I just dont see that everything will be controlled by a handful of huge businesses in 200 years time.

    But... who knows what the future brings? We just need to be ready to use our skills what ever happens so we can support our lives and our families.
    The thing is that I'm interested in a bit more than just beeing able to support my family. I think the reason why we are beeing more and more controlled is because everyone is happy if they have just enough to support their family. Well, maybe I can profit from this one day.

  7. #32
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    We all want to be able to support our selves and have some extra because of the hard work! I agree with you totally there.
    -- Matthew

  8. #33
    Greetings Vito:

    "dynamicnet, it's true. Datacenters require substantial investment, land, buildings, etc. But that's today. Just think back to the 70's when computers were the size of a mid size boat, and they ran with punch cards, and were 1/1000 th of the power/speed we see in computers today. Doesn't it make sense to extrapolate that same level of advancement in technology in the coming years?"

    Yes, and no.

    Computers are computers, and data centers are data centers ;-)

    I don't know if we will see the "data center in a box" in my life time (I'm going to be 41 next week).

    I started working with computers in the latter part of the 1970’s where there were punch cards as well as main frames that easily filled 15 square foot rooms (and more).

    My first computer was a Radio Shack TRS-80 with 16 KB of memory and a cassette recorder for long term storage. It would take thirty minutes to save a program ;-)

    So I agree that computers are getting smaller, faster, cooler (from a temperature perspective), etc.

    I also see broadband becoming more prevalent (though the growth is slower in the U.S.).

    However, in the past eight of the nine years in business (eight of them in hosting), I’ve not really seen major advancements on the data center end unless you count blade servers (which are nice).

    The barriers to a data center in the home involve a lot of redundancy – local loop, connectivity outside the local loop, power, environmental controls, security, etc.

    While data centers house computers (in some cases, personal computers given towers and desktops); but I am not sure if you would have the data center the size of a room within a house that would have all of the features of a world class data center. At least not in the next decade (or longer).

    Thank you.
    ---
    Peter M. Abraham
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  9. #34
    I have not read this whole thread, but what makes you think in 5 years - 20 year the general person could run their own server, most normal people with computer now cant even use the computer to its full potential

    Derrick
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  10. #35
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    I always appreciate your posts, dynamicnet. They're always well thought out.

    Without repeating myself, all I'm saying is that the Internet is everchanging, evolving at rates uncommon to most other industries. So one must always resist plowing ahead with blinders on. Your point is well taken. Chances are that self-hosting won't come for some time. But industry changes will take place, and it's up to each of us to make a concerted effort to "go with the flow" with our respective businesses. Else we end up left behind saying "Wa happened??"

    As a small example, five years ago, did you ever think it would be possible to send a scented email ? Did you ever think you could be connected to the Net with nothing more than a small hand held device while lounging on your 244-foot Katana?

    Vito
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  11. #36
    Greetings Vito:

    You are correct about an open mind, and the progression into the future.

    I guess, I'm just looking at changes that may or not take place in my life time (not that I know if I will live short or long).

    Thank you.

  12. #37
    Honestly....I don't think so....

    what about the 20-30 years ago when everyone was promise "by the year 2000 we will have flying cars with fantastic hairstyles and a dome in the car to cover that hairstyle...."

    *Looks out into driveway*



    will things change? Yes absoutly, But the Jetsons still only exist on my TV

  13. #38
    Greetings:

    The “in terms of happening in my life time” was based on the following memories:

    * When Visual Basic (VB) came out, they stated it would be the end of COBOL programmers.

    That never happened.

    The next statement was that VB would be the end of professional programmers because it made programming so easy anyone could be a programmer.

    That never happened.

    * In 1999 (it could have been the year 2000), I remember seeing press on IBM coming up with “personal ware” where you would wear a monocle that would project the equivalent of a 10” screen on your retina, was connected to the Internet, would allow you to process your email with voice as well as a touch mouse (you wore on your belt).

    It was the neatest looking technology device I saw at the time (and still think it might be neat); and yet, where is it in the market place?

    * In the same time frame Sony came out with AIBO (spelling?); and I was drooling (though I love real dogs). Look at the price.

    Several years later, and while technology improvements have been made, the price is relatively the same.

    Moore’s principal is wearing thin, broadband still has years to go for 100% market penetration (what’s personal computer market penetration these days? 50%?).

    So a lot would have to happen in order to get data center quality in a standard room in a house; especially where most people could afford it.

    Yes, it is very possible… I just not sure it will happen over the next 40 to 50 years.

    Thank you.
    ---
    Peter M. Abraham
    LinkedIn Profile

  14. #39
    Interesting!

    Maybe this could happen, maybe it won't. All in all though, people rely on webhosts because they give value for money.

    This said, the only way that buying a personal server that you can plug into your super high speed connection at home will ever replace us is if we stagnate and never offer anything newer or anything different.

    Think about it, all businesses processes can be automated. ALL. Its just a function of being able to translate the process into a program. Whether the inclination or profit motive to do this exists is another matter.

    I like the thought that provoked this discussion though but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it!



    P.S besides, how much would a Windows OS cost for one of those things?

  15. #40
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    Originally posted by MEGASTEVER
    *Looks out into driveway*

    will things change? Yes absoutly, But the Jetsons still only exist on my TV
    Oh no! LOL

    http://www.firebox.com/index.html?di...roduct&pid=415
    -- Matthew

  16. #41
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    The main problem I see with that is if everyone has a 10mbit/sec line into their home the servers would need to be on pipes bigger than those. Yes, houses will become more and more wired, but all that will do is increase the need for bandwidth. I also honestly don't see fiber to every home happening anytime soon as it would cost a mint to lay that much fiber, and who would do it, the phone company, the cable company? I'm not even touching on the idea about managing the server, unless we develop servers that can manage themselves, then a ton of IT people will be unemployed as well... Also, even if you can get the boxes for $50 there will still be the newest and fastest boxes that will cost $2k or more.
    Karl Zimmerman - Founder & CEO of Steadfast
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  17. #42
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    Originally posted by taketo
    Well 30 years ago a computer was as large as a house and you needed 50 technicans to operate it. If you had told them that only 15 years later people would operate their own PCs at home they would probably have called you an idiot. Now you say they will not be able to administrate the server but in 20 years the servers will probably administrate themselves and all you have to do is to plug them into a phone box or something.
    Correct, but the most powerful computers still take many technicians and cost upwards of $3 million, and that's not even a special order, etc. it's a Sun Fire E25K. As computers and the Internet grow it'll be easier to reach the lowest rung, but it'll never be easy to reach the highest. As bandwidth demand increases the hosts will need even larger connections, connections no house could handle. Even though a $50 COULD do the job it may take a $5000 box to do it properly. I also highly doubt any home lines and servers will ever have close to 100% availability...
    Karl Zimmerman - Founder & CEO of Steadfast
    VMware Virtual Data Center Platform

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    Cloud Hosting, Managed Dedicated Servers, Chicago Colocation, and New Jersey Colocation

  18. #43
    "Well, sure, the Frinkiac-7 looks impressive, don't touch
    it, but I predict that within 100 years, computers will
    be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive
    that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them."

    Justin

  19. #44
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    Tell me, how is the Internet changing? To me everything seems to be exactly the same, just growing in scale. You say the Internet is changing at an uncommon rate, what exactly is changing? Computers are faster, Internet connections are faster, but those changes are happening on both sides, end users and providers. All I see is a change in scale. We still send packets over copper or fiber, some links are wireless, but we know they'll never reach the quality of copper or fiber. The actual content is changing, but what does that matter to a web host, all they care is the amount of bandwidth and space taken up.

    Originally posted by vito
    I always appreciate your posts, dynamicnet. They're always well thought out.

    Without repeating myself, all I'm saying is that the Internet is everchanging, evolving at rates uncommon to most other industries. So one must always resist plowing ahead with blinders on. Your point is well taken. Chances are that self-hosting won't come for some time. But industry changes will take place, and it's up to each of us to make a concerted effort to "go with the flow" with our respective businesses. Else we end up left behind saying "Wa happened??"

    As a small example, five years ago, did you ever think it would be possible to send a scented email ? Did you ever think you could be connected to the Net with nothing more than a small hand held device while lounging on your 244-foot Katana?

    Vito
    Karl Zimmerman - Founder & CEO of Steadfast
    VMware Virtual Data Center Platform

    karl @ steadfast.net - Sales/Support: 312-602-2689
    Cloud Hosting, Managed Dedicated Servers, Chicago Colocation, and New Jersey Colocation

  20. #45
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    Originally posted by Fatty
    Well I guess in parts of Europe and S Korea people already have very fast connections. I think that the problem will be that the level of media web sites will have to serve will increase.

    So although home users will get bigger pipes, web site owners will need even bigger ones to serve all that media...
    Home users have greater downstream capacity, but generally their upstream capacity still sucks.

    For example, around these parts, 350kb/sec download and 20kb/sec upload is the norm.
    Dating Revolution Method - Book on how to meet and attract women

  21. #46
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    Hi,

    I don't think this will be the case to an extent where it actually hurts the web hosting industry ever. You may be able to get a cheap pipe and serve your pages using your computer, but what do you do when your computer breaks down? What about when you have power outages? What if your hardware got damaged because of t5he running temperature of your computer 24/7? If you read full case studies on many on many of the people who have attempted running servers from home, about 75% of them end up just getting web hosting from a web hosting company. Information on this is all over the Internet, probably also on this forum, but your best resource would probably be a Google search.

    Thanks,
    Doug

  22. #47
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    Originally posted by KarlZimmer
    Tell me, how is the Internet changing? To me everything seems to be exactly the same, just growing in scale. You say the Internet is changing at an uncommon rate, what exactly is changing? Computers are faster, Internet connections are faster, but those changes are happening on both sides, end users and providers. All I see is a change in scale. We still send packets over copper or fiber, some links are wireless, but we know they'll never reach the quality of copper or fiber. The actual content is changing, but what does that matter to a web host, all they care is the amount of bandwidth and space taken up.
    While I agree that the Internet is proportionately "scaling up" on both sides, I also believe that technological advancements are changing the dynamics as well. First there was dialup. Cool. Then came along cable. Wow. What speed. Then we are able to get "high speed" through our existing phone lines. Then we're able to connect wirelessly. Then we're able to be online with a computer that fits in the palm of our hand.

    It just seems to me that saying "can't" or "never" right now is somewhat narrow minded. Throughout history, you can always think back to earlier times and realize that we aren't always able to predict what doors are opened to us by advancements in technology.

    Think about it. In the 50's, imagine telling someone that instead of having to put a piece of meat in a hot oven for an hour to cook it, one day you'll be able to put that same piece of meat onto a plate, put it into a square box, press a couple of buttons, and the meat will be cooked in 6 minutes. And the plate won't even be hot to the touch! Just the meat! That would sound unbelievable, wouldn't it? Today, we take the microwave oven for granted.

    Never say never.

    Vito
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  23. #48
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    Yes, but with a microwave you lose the quality of cooking it in an oven. Yes technology advances, but until there is no need for web hosting in any form, there will always be web hosting, which is basically what I'm saying. Yes, things will advance, things will change, but web hosting itself will grow and change with those things as well. Name an industry that has gone under even though there has been demand, that's never happened. Just the fact that people are using $50 boxes in their homes shows a need for web hosting, and certain people will want more than what the $50 box gives them. Did we ever imagine the telephone would eventually spread across the entire world, and that we would no longer need wires, no, but the phone companies have adapted perfectly fine, as the largest cell phone providers are backed by actual land line companies, Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, Cingular/SBC, etc.
    Karl Zimmerman - Founder & CEO of Steadfast
    VMware Virtual Data Center Platform

    karl @ steadfast.net - Sales/Support: 312-602-2689
    Cloud Hosting, Managed Dedicated Servers, Chicago Colocation, and New Jersey Colocation

  24. #49
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    Theirs a vacuum and sprays in many homes/business's and yet people still hire "professionals" to clean their house/place of work. Why?

    People are lazy. It's much better paying someone else to do it. If your running an ecommerce business you would be mad to keep it at home. No redundancy, some bas*ard can come in and pinch your server.

    If you market the $2 section then yes you should be worried.
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  25. #50
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    Originally posted by KarlZimmer
    Yes, but with a microwave you lose the quality of cooking it in an oven.
    I paid $1400AUD for my microwave and it does a better job than the oven. It's got its own rotisserie
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