Well, you can get it via auction... but there is no guarantee.
It's possible someone else might want the domain name, and is willing to pay more for it.
It's also possible the registrar might simply decide to keep the domain themselves... after all, you gave up any claim or rights you had to it by allowing it to expire AND not purchasing it from redemption when you had the chance.
We've had many customers who "lost" their domain because it expired and they didn't want to pay the high redemption fee, and then someone else purchased it.
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