Ok, here's the question:

If there was a disease that if you had it and you breathed on someone, you were cured and the other person immedeatly got it, and only one person got it...how long would it take for it to have gone to every person in the world?

Also, assuming that: Everyone is awake, and walking in public.

Sounds like a trick question to me LOL

13.24123546789 minutes.

uuallan, you can't be serious..?


btw- i DONT know the answer, i want to know

Originally posted by Cyber
uuallan, you can't be serious..?


That's correct, I am not serious :). The premise of the question is flawed. While social networks can be mapped out in small controlled groups, the idea of mapping out a social network for the entire planet is simply not feasible.

Because we cannot map out a social network for the entire planet, it is impossible to answer this question. You gave your cold to one person, we do not know how many people that person came into contact with, and you also do not know many people the people that the second person came into contact with came in to contact with and so on. A one-to-one ratio is very unlikely (ie 2nd person gave it only to the 3rd person, who gave it only to the 4th person). But the fact is, some people know more people than others, and will have the opportunity to infect more people than others will.

The other unknown in this equation is the virility of the germ. How often is it successfully passed from host to host, is it 60% of the time, 100% of the time, or some other percentage. Coupled with that percentage you would also need to know the gestation period, so we could get an idea of how long it would take before the germ became active in the new host -- so it could be spread.

Also, assuming you got the disease and were cured, you cannot get it again, so at no point would everyone be infected, because you cannot be infected again.

If we ignore all of these concerns, defy the laws of physics, and gravity, and assume there are people who are able to cough so hard that their germs spread across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, then we would have to assume a one to one transmittal with a 100% infection rate and instant gestation.

If you make those very very invalid assumptions, then your equation is very simple:

x = The amount of time it takes a person to cough.
y = The number of people on the planet (6 Billion)
z = How long it would take:

z = x * y

I just performed 3 tests, and I was able to cough in 3/4 of a second.

z = 6 Billion * .75
z = 4.5 Billion Seconds
z = 4.5 Billion Seconds/60
z = 75 Million Minutes/60
z = 1.25 Million Hours/24
z = 52,083.333 Days/365
z = 142.694 years
(this does not account for leap years, but I figure the science is so bad what's 35 or so days).

uualan,
you rule! :)

I would think that some poor sap would be hero enough to not breath on someone else, and kill him/her self, and rid the world of the disease.

Of course, they could also be hit by a bus before they could pass it on.

wow, nice logic uuallen! cool answer :)

allan you have too much time

Joe

Originally posted by Cyber
wow, nice logic uuallen! cool answer :)

Thanks, and no problem, I just hope I didn't inadvertenly help you with a homework assignment :D.

i would say the answer is 0... since the second guy does not pass on the disease to anyone else...

and only one person got it

:stickout

:D uuallan :D Bravo!!!! Now to add to the insanity we would also have to consider the following:

There are 4.2 babies born every second. That's 250 new humans every minute and 15,008 every hour. How many people die every second? Every minute? Every hour? Are there more babies born every day than people dying every day? Does this screw up the equation?

GAH! This is not how I should be spending my time! To answer my own question though... there are 4.2 births every second and 1.8 deaths every second so we are increasing by 2.4 humans every second. 76,256,108 increase every year. uuallan's error margin wouldn't be affected too much by this however since there were many others issues available to blow it with much larger numbers :D

Originally posted by Deb

There are 4.2 babies born every second. That's 250 new humans every minute and 15,008 every hour. How many people die every second? Every minute? Every hour? Are there more babies born every day than people dying every day? Does this screw up the equation?

Deb -- excellent point, I thought about that as well, but decided that since this disease is like invisible hot potato -- no one once to be near the guy with the potato, but no one knows who has it -- the people on planet are not having sex :), so no babies. As for the dead people, we'll just assume they died of the disease :).

But excellent points that should have been factored in, reminds me of my Sociology Stats classes in college.

Where is Russell Crowe when you need him? lol ...

If it could be spread as an attachment in an email, it would cut in half (at least) the amount of time needed to spread.

If a person's brain was controlled by MS Windows, the spread would be instant. Then again, if our brains were controlled by Windows, the disease wouldn't have to spread.

If a person's brain was controlled by MS Windows, the spread would be instant. Nah... it'd just lock up and leave some poor soul standing still and turning blue...

Originally posted by Deb
Nah... it'd just lock up and leave some poor soul standing still and turning blue...

:look:











and what if its running RH 7.2