Some people run their own servers at home already. Maybe in 10 years PC will be small and will not need coolers so will be very silent just like a phone box or something (imagine a 2''x2''x2'' box that doesn't make any noise). Maybe the industry will make servers of that kind that you just have to plug in your phone box and then you'll have a full server with a 10 MBPS connection and the whole thing maybe for 50 Dollars one time cost. I mean this really could happen and probably everyone will be able to use it. Like a hundred years ago noone knew how to use a phone everyone might know how to administrate a small server box in 20 years. If this happens the hosting industry is ruined... I really hope I will have made enough money by then. This is one of my fears.

Who knows though... maybe with the introduction of 3G over the past couple of years and also 4 and 5G in discussion... who needs to put their server at home? Why not have it in your pocket on your cell phone and wirelessly accessible from anywhere in the world. ;)

Well....
I think that the main factor is the support.
Sure I can have my servers in own own home but well.... maintanence? Support?

Look at the concept of a lot of people today that "can" use the PC but troubleshoot skills are ZERO......
I was actually PAID a few weeks ago to go to someone's apartment to remove a "suspected" virus... the owner inisited it was a virus over the phone..... but when I got there it was a Proxy setting error......

I think the downfall of the Internet industry will not come any time soon :p NOT in 20 years no! I think we would have a WorldWide Revolution even before that happens......:P
My 2 cents

Hopefully not :) all us webhosters will send a big email and signed request to not make any such servers :D for the industry sake heheh and economic sake as well. maybe we should start a community from now ;) to avoid it

Yes, true.

Although I got a good friend who was runninghis company from home. He had to get them transferredafter his 10th box-lol.

Well I guess in parts of Europe and S Korea people already have very fast connections. I think that the problem will be that the level of media web sites will have to serve will increase.

So although home users will get bigger pipes, web site owners will need even bigger ones to serve all that media...

:P Yeah he would have to be really "powerful" to manage 10 servers all by himself......
But the home is a good place to start up :)
(Just don't stick to the bed too often :P - Self control man! self control :D )

Hahaha your funny galacnet! :) anyhow as you said people will not be able to manage the servers themseleves, I think they wouldnt have time to sit and manage the server everyday, they can outsource like now and let us take care of all the hassels. Im not to sure if they would like to fight of viruses and sit administor their servers daily.

Yes, in Europe we will soon have 1 MB/s connections. I think we will have it in less than 5 years. I think if these servers were so easy to maintain that every idiot could do it and they never failed. I think in 20 years they can build that kind of stuff.

Maybe I will be rich enough so I can develope these servers :D :D :D but I don't think so :(

Well 30 years ago a computer was as large as a house and you needed 50 technicans to operate it. If you had told them that only 15 years later people would operate their own PCs at home they would probably have called you an idiot. Now you say they will not be able to administrate the server but in 20 years the servers will probably administrate themselves and all you have to do is to plug them into a phone box or something.

Well you want a simple to manage server I would suggest a Cobalt RaQ4!!!
Low power consumption, slow but hardy and SUPER easy to manage and configure :D
"even an idiot like me can handle it ;) )

On Connections speeds, i got a speedy 56k, and its all thats out in my nice remote aussie area but 180 dollar a month 500 megabyte downlload limit 128kbps satellite with 800 dollar setup.

Imagine me running my own server, hehe.

Yeeks!! Thats EXPENSIVE!!!
USD$30 for a 512kps Dynamic Connection !!! Sinagpore is a nice place :D

quite true taketo, who knows maybe we all will be out of business anymore, so maybe we should start search engines ;) the market for that is already booming :D

Originally posted by taketo
. . . I really hope I will have made enough money by then. This is one of my fears.
Don't take this the wrong way, but I've been reading a lot of your posts, and you really need to calm down and chill out a bit. Yes, operating a hosting business is enough worry on its own, but there's no need to add to the worry levels.

Deep breaths. :)

Agreed :) But really the connections are getting cheaper and cheaper....
I remember 10 years ago I bought my domain name for like $75 a year...!!!
Now that is about 10% of the price.....

Who knows? Many will say that even though everyone will have the hardware capabilities to run their own web site from home, they will still need the tech support to maintain it. I agree with that premise provided that technology remains as is. But it is not outside of the realm of possibilities that we could see self-diagnosing self-repairing self-maintaining servers. Just plug it in and you're off to the races. Hey, it could happen.

Here's an interesting read with a number of different viewpoints on this:
http://www.webhostingtalk.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=96859

I certainly wouldn't suggest that all of you should have a fire sale tomorrow and get into another business. But I do suggest that the hosting industry will go through some significant facelifts and metamorphoses in the coming years. The hosts who survive will be the ones who are able to modify their business models on the fly to keep in pace with the everchanging needs.

Vito

Having fairly recently done a 2 year stint on a helpesk, I can assure you that even if the technology exists, there will be no lack of people who want a website and don't have the skills to manage a server properly. Also, ISPs will be a big factor in such a thing happening. Technically, they broadband ISPs could provide people with enough bandwidth to run a small server frm their house as it is, but most don't. At least here in the US they usually provide around 1.5Mb/s inbound but only 128Kb/s outbound making servers on their network more or less uselessly slow.

True, but we're not talking about this happening today. We're speculating on how things will be given some major advancements in hardware.

Vito

True, we're speaking of what might happen in the future, but even based strictly off of ISPs and assuming everyone suddenly learns how to use a computer and administrate a server, I find it pretty unlikely. ISPs control your internet access, many ISPs also do web hosting and the like, therefore they are likely to continue to limit what can be done just so that it doesn't cut into their business.

It's all part of change though. People WILL make servers that keep them selves running so they can get the business and it's only a matter of time for everyone to follow.

I cannot see people holding back a technology like this. If that was the case then we wouldnt have any automotion in the world because people wouldnt have made robots to make cars etc...

Things will and always do progress. All is required of us is to either invent this technology or... find a job where you can best utilise this service.

As automation kicked in and workers were not needed as much then they have to learn new skills and work other types of jobs. I think jobs will be available... just new and interesting different types.

At the end of the day you just gotta keep abrest with the times and use your knowledge.

Greetings:

A world class data center has more than air flow and environmental controls.

They either have a sonet ring or multiple local loops, they tend to have redudancy in connectivity, routers, switches, etc.

A world class data center typically runs $600 per square foot to build, and $300 per square foot to operate -- Sean Brophy, NTT/Verio

And we know from our own research that building and land development alone can run $1,000,000 for a small data center (not including peple or equipment).

While there are people who host from home; for businesses' there appears to be a world of difference between hosting with a real data center and a home / garage environment.

Thank you.

One day there will be no limits on anything. Its just a matter of time and I hope it happens when I am rich or dead.

Originally posted by Aussie Bob
Don't take this the wrong way, but I've been reading a lot of your posts, and you really need to calm down and chill out a bit. Yes, operating a hosting business is enough worry on its own, but there's no need to add to the worry levels.

Deep breaths. :)

LOL :D I'm a bit like the guy in the Falling Down Movie. If some guy is unfriendly at McDonalds I always want a machine gun ;)

Originally posted by dynamicnet
A world class data center has more than air flow and environmental controls.

They either have a sonet ring or multiple local loops, they tend to have redudancy in connectivity, routers, switches, etc.

A world class data center typically runs $600 per square foot to build, and $300 per square foot to operate -- Sean Brophy, NTT/Verio

And we know from our own research that building and land development alone can run $1,000,000 for a small data center (not including peple or equipment). dynamicnet, it's true. Datacenters require substantial investment, land, buildings, etc. But that's today. Just think back to the 70's when computers were the size of a mid size boat, and they ran with punch cards, and were 1/1000 th of the power/speed we see in computers today. Doesn't it make sense to extrapolate that same level of advancement in technology in the coming years?

Originally posted by Stormhosts
At the end of the day you just gotta keep abrest with the times and use your knowledge. In a nutshell, that's what it really comes down to. Keep your eyes open, and always be aware of the changes/trends in your industry. And with any luck (and effort), you'll be able to keep pace by modifying your offerings so that you are always in demand.

Vito

I think the tendency is that big companies take over all businesses at the end. I think in 200 years there will not be any self-employed people anymore.

Originally posted by taketo
I think the tendency is that big companies take over all businesses at the end. I think in 200 years there will not be any self-employed people anymore.

I dont know about that. There has been no history of this taking place or anything to compare it to.

I think people and skills will always be in demand either as a company or as an individual. It's just a matter of what demands there are in 10, 25, 50, 100, 200 years time.

Originally posted by Stormhosts
I dont know about that. There has been no history of this taking place or anything to compare it to.

I think people and skills will always be in demand either as a company or as an individual. It's just a matter of what demands there are in 10, 25, 50, 100, 200 years time.

Well 200 years ago everything was made by little private people even steal products, tools and everything. Today there are medium or large businesses doing this. The small 5 man companies have died except for a few. Wait 200 years and there will be like 50 companies doing everything.

I guess it all depends on what type industry we are referring to. I just dont see that everything will be controlled by a handful of huge businesses in 200 years time.

But... who knows what the future brings? We just need to be ready to use our skills what ever happens so we can support our lives and our families.

I don't have current figures, but I remember a few years ago reading that 70% of the economy is small to medium sized businesses. 70%. In my estimation, businesses with <50 employees are and will continue to be the backbone of the economy (in general). Your industry's mileage may vary.

Vito

Originally posted by Stormhosts
I guess it all depends on what type industry we are referring to. I just dont see that everything will be controlled by a handful of huge businesses in 200 years time.

But... who knows what the future brings? We just need to be ready to use our skills what ever happens so we can support our lives and our families.

The thing is that I'm interested in a bit more than just beeing able to support my family. I think the reason why we are beeing more and more controlled is because everyone is happy if they have just enough to support their family. Well, maybe I can profit from this one day.

We all want to be able to support our selves and have some extra because of the hard work! I agree with you totally there.

Greetings Vito:

"dynamicnet, it's true. Datacenters require substantial investment, land, buildings, etc. But that's today. Just think back to the 70's when computers were the size of a mid size boat, and they ran with punch cards, and were 1/1000 th of the power/speed we see in computers today. Doesn't it make sense to extrapolate that same level of advancement in technology in the coming years?"

Yes, and no.

Computers are computers, and data centers are data centers ;-)

I don't know if we will see the "data center in a box" in my life time (I'm going to be 41 next week).

I started working with computers in the latter part of the 1970’s where there were punch cards as well as main frames that easily filled 15 square foot rooms (and more).

My first computer was a Radio Shack TRS-80 with 16 KB of memory and a cassette recorder for long term storage. It would take thirty minutes to save a program ;-)

So I agree that computers are getting smaller, faster, cooler (from a temperature perspective), etc.

I also see broadband becoming more prevalent (though the growth is slower in the U.S.).

However, in the past eight of the nine years in business (eight of them in hosting), I’ve not really seen major advancements on the data center end unless you count blade servers (which are nice).

The barriers to a data center in the home involve a lot of redundancy – local loop, connectivity outside the local loop, power, environmental controls, security, etc.

While data centers house computers (in some cases, personal computers given towers and desktops); but I am not sure if you would have the data center the size of a room within a house that would have all of the features of a world class data center. At least not in the next decade (or longer).

Thank you.

I have not read this whole thread, but what makes you think in 5 years - 20 year the general person could run their own server, most normal people with computer now cant even use the computer to its full potential :)

Derrick

I always appreciate your posts, dynamicnet. They're always well thought out. ;)

Without repeating myself, all I'm saying is that the Internet is everchanging, evolving at rates uncommon to most other industries. So one must always resist plowing ahead with blinders on. Your point is well taken. Chances are that self-hosting won't come for some time. But industry changes will take place, and it's up to each of us to make a concerted effort to "go with the flow" with our respective businesses. Else we end up left behind saying "Wa happened??"

As a small example, five years ago, did you ever think it would be possible to send a scented email (http://www.webhostingtalk.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=238589) ? Did you ever think you could be connected to the Net with nothing more than a small hand held device while lounging on your 244-foot Katana?

Vito

Greetings Vito:

You are correct about an open mind, and the progression into the future.

I guess, I'm just looking at changes that may or not take place in my life time (not that I know if I will live short or long).

Thank you.

Honestly....I don't think so....

what about the 20-30 years ago when everyone was promise "by the year 2000 we will have flying cars with fantastic hairstyles and a dome in the car to cover that hairstyle...."

*Looks out into driveway*



will things change? Yes absoutly, But the Jetsons still only exist on my TV

Greetings:

The “in terms of happening in my life time” was based on the following memories:

* When Visual Basic (VB) came out, they stated it would be the end of COBOL programmers.

That never happened.

The next statement was that VB would be the end of professional programmers because it made programming so easy anyone could be a programmer.

That never happened.

* In 1999 (it could have been the year 2000), I remember seeing press on IBM coming up with “personal ware” where you would wear a monocle that would project the equivalent of a 10” screen on your retina, was connected to the Internet, would allow you to process your email with voice as well as a touch mouse (you wore on your belt).

It was the neatest looking technology device I saw at the time (and still think it might be neat); and yet, where is it in the market place?

* In the same time frame Sony came out with AIBO (spelling?); and I was drooling (though I love real dogs). Look at the price.

Several years later, and while technology improvements have been made, the price is relatively the same.

Moore’s principal is wearing thin, broadband still has years to go for 100% market penetration (what’s personal computer market penetration these days? 50%?).

So a lot would have to happen in order to get data center quality in a standard room in a house; especially where most people could afford it.

Yes, it is very possible… I just not sure it will happen over the next 40 to 50 years.

Thank you.

Interesting!

Maybe this could happen, maybe it won't. All in all though, people rely on webhosts because they give value for money.

This said, the only way that buying a personal server that you can plug into your super high speed connection at home will ever replace us is if we stagnate and never offer anything newer or anything different.

Think about it, all businesses processes can be automated. ALL. Its just a function of being able to translate the process into a program. Whether the inclination or profit motive to do this exists is another matter.

I like the thought that provoked this discussion though but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it!

:)

P.S besides, how much would a Windows OS cost for one of those things?

Originally posted by MEGASTEVER
*Looks out into driveway*

will things change? Yes absoutly, But the Jetsons still only exist on my TV

Oh no! LOL

http://www.firebox.com/index.html?dir=firebox&action=product&pid=415

The main problem I see with that is if everyone has a 10mbit/sec line into their home the servers would need to be on pipes bigger than those. Yes, houses will become more and more wired, but all that will do is increase the need for bandwidth. I also honestly don't see fiber to every home happening anytime soon as it would cost a mint to lay that much fiber, and who would do it, the phone company, the cable company? I'm not even touching on the idea about managing the server, unless we develop servers that can manage themselves, then a ton of IT people will be unemployed as well... Also, even if you can get the boxes for $50 there will still be the newest and fastest boxes that will cost $2k or more.

Originally posted by taketo
Well 30 years ago a computer was as large as a house and you needed 50 technicans to operate it. If you had told them that only 15 years later people would operate their own PCs at home they would probably have called you an idiot. Now you say they will not be able to administrate the server but in 20 years the servers will probably administrate themselves and all you have to do is to plug them into a phone box or something.

Correct, but the most powerful computers still take many technicians and cost upwards of $3 million, and that's not even a special order, etc. it's a Sun Fire E25K. As computers and the Internet grow it'll be easier to reach the lowest rung, but it'll never be easy to reach the highest. As bandwidth demand increases the hosts will need even larger connections, connections no house could handle. Even though a $50 COULD do the job it may take a $5000 box to do it properly. I also highly doubt any home lines and servers will ever have close to 100% availability...

"Well, sure, the Frinkiac-7 looks impressive, don't touch
it, but I predict that within 100 years, computers will
be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger, and so expensive
that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them."

Justin

Tell me, how is the Internet changing? To me everything seems to be exactly the same, just growing in scale. You say the Internet is changing at an uncommon rate, what exactly is changing? Computers are faster, Internet connections are faster, but those changes are happening on both sides, end users and providers. All I see is a change in scale. We still send packets over copper or fiber, some links are wireless, but we know they'll never reach the quality of copper or fiber. The actual content is changing, but what does that matter to a web host, all they care is the amount of bandwidth and space taken up.

Originally posted by vito
I always appreciate your posts, dynamicnet. They're always well thought out. ;)

Without repeating myself, all I'm saying is that the Internet is everchanging, evolving at rates uncommon to most other industries. So one must always resist plowing ahead with blinders on. Your point is well taken. Chances are that self-hosting won't come for some time. But industry changes will take place, and it's up to each of us to make a concerted effort to "go with the flow" with our respective businesses. Else we end up left behind saying "Wa happened??"

As a small example, five years ago, did you ever think it would be possible to send a scented email (http://www.webhostingtalk.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=238589) ? Did you ever think you could be connected to the Net with nothing more than a small hand held device while lounging on your 244-foot Katana?

Vito

Originally posted by Fatty
Well I guess in parts of Europe and S Korea people already have very fast connections. I think that the problem will be that the level of media web sites will have to serve will increase.

So although home users will get bigger pipes, web site owners will need even bigger ones to serve all that media...

Home users have greater downstream capacity, but generally their upstream capacity still sucks.

For example, around these parts, 350kb/sec download and 20kb/sec upload is the norm.

Hi,

I don't think this will be the case to an extent where it actually hurts the web hosting industry ever. You may be able to get a cheap pipe and serve your pages using your computer, but what do you do when your computer breaks down? What about when you have power outages? What if your hardware got damaged because of t5he running temperature of your computer 24/7? If you read full case studies on many on many of the people who have attempted running servers from home, about 75% of them end up just getting web hosting from a web hosting company. Information on this is all over the Internet, probably also on this forum, but your best resource would probably be a Google search.

Thanks,
Doug

Originally posted by KarlZimmer
Tell me, how is the Internet changing? To me everything seems to be exactly the same, just growing in scale. You say the Internet is changing at an uncommon rate, what exactly is changing? Computers are faster, Internet connections are faster, but those changes are happening on both sides, end users and providers. All I see is a change in scale. We still send packets over copper or fiber, some links are wireless, but we know they'll never reach the quality of copper or fiber. The actual content is changing, but what does that matter to a web host, all they care is the amount of bandwidth and space taken up. While I agree that the Internet is proportionately "scaling up" on both sides, I also believe that technological advancements are changing the dynamics as well. First there was dialup. Cool. Then came along cable. Wow. What speed. Then we are able to get "high speed" through our existing phone lines. Then we're able to connect wirelessly. Then we're able to be online with a computer that fits in the palm of our hand.

It just seems to me that saying "can't" or "never" right now is somewhat narrow minded. Throughout history, you can always think back to earlier times and realize that we aren't always able to predict what doors are opened to us by advancements in technology.

Think about it. In the 50's, imagine telling someone that instead of having to put a piece of meat in a hot oven for an hour to cook it, one day you'll be able to put that same piece of meat onto a plate, put it into a square box, press a couple of buttons, and the meat will be cooked in 6 minutes. And the plate won't even be hot to the touch! Just the meat! That would sound unbelievable, wouldn't it? Today, we take the microwave oven for granted.

Never say never. ;)

Vito

Yes, but with a microwave you lose the quality of cooking it in an oven. Yes technology advances, but until there is no need for web hosting in any form, there will always be web hosting, which is basically what I'm saying. Yes, things will advance, things will change, but web hosting itself will grow and change with those things as well. Name an industry that has gone under even though there has been demand, that's never happened. Just the fact that people are using $50 boxes in their homes shows a need for web hosting, and certain people will want more than what the $50 box gives them. Did we ever imagine the telephone would eventually spread across the entire world, and that we would no longer need wires, no, but the phone companies have adapted perfectly fine, as the largest cell phone providers are backed by actual land line companies, Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, Cingular/SBC, etc.

Theirs a vacuum and sprays in many homes/business's and yet people still hire "professionals" to clean their house/place of work. Why?

People are lazy. It's much better paying someone else to do it. If your running an ecommerce business you would be mad to keep it at home. No redundancy, some bas*ard can come in and pinch your server.

If you market the $2 section then yes you should be worried.

Originally posted by KarlZimmer
Yes, but with a microwave you lose the quality of cooking it in an oven.

I paid $1400AUD for my microwave and it does a better job than the oven. It's got its own rotisserie :stickout:

Originally posted by KarlZimmer
Name an industry that has gone under even though there has been demand, that's never happened. Typesetting.

In the mid to late '80s, my wife was a professional typesetter. Back then, every magazine on the newstands was formatted by typesetters. She worked for a very successful and profitable company of 85+ employees strong. Millions of dollars invested in equipment.

Then came along - desk top publishing.

Typesetting died in its tracks. In a single year, the company went from 85 employees to 40 employees to 12 employees to 5 employees ... to closing its doors.

Could they have adapted? Perhaps. I don't know the business so I can't say for sure. But I would think that if the owner had his ear to the ground and kept abreast of the trends, he might have been better able to prepare, and transition his company to the new technology. Even so, though, many of their customers opted to produce their publications in-house. With a Mac, a copy of Quark Express (I think that's what it was called), and a much cheaper-per-hour employee laying out the pages, they were good to go.

Yes of course it would appear that right now it would be cost prohibitive to have all the stability and redundancy of a datacenter in your home setup. But that's today. In the early '70s, I bought my first Texas Instruments calculator for $180.00. Big, clunky, not many functions. Today you can buy a calculator at the Dollar Store that is many times more advanced. It's all economy of scale. When it gets to the point that a home can have its own server setup, worldwide production will grow to the millions, and price will drop dramatically.

On the other hand, only a small fraction of businesses have Internet presence today. As time goes by, more and more will come aboard. So although many will opt for their own in-house solution, others will still want to outsource. So the numbers may very well balance out.

Vito

vito, the printing industry didn't go under, it changed, it evolved, just as I've been describing. Typesetting is still done, the industry is still there, they still need to make the words from the computer to go onto paper, the technology has changed. That one company was unable to evolve, but it seems most people didn't have a problem. The industry still exists, unless the newspapers and magazines somehow print themselves. As I said, web hosting will need to evolve, meet new demands that arise, support new software platforms, etc. Any company that is unable to evolve with the times will fail. Your wife's company failed because the owner had no idea what he was doing when it came to evolving and keeping with the trends, not because the industry vanished, the industry is still there.

As you've given examples, the calculator and computer industries are doing perfectly fine, they're still there, even though there have been technological advances. All good companies will evolve.

On that point, we agree, Karl. That's the point I was making with the company gone under. It is critical to be sensitive (and responsive) to industry trends to keep your business on top. And if you don't, you fall by the wayside.

Now that we're seeing eye to eye, drinks are on me. ;)

:beer:

Vito

I have a 3.6Mbit up/down 3static ips at home... Any body want some colo???? But wait... arent we forgetting on what makes a good DC. What about the generators and multi-homed bandwidth.

Originally posted by bizness
What about the generators and multi-homed bandwidth.

Your broadband connection could be considered multi-homed if you live in a duplex or apartment.

Ba-dum ching

:rofl:


Thank you folks, thank you. Remember the 11 o'clock show is totally different than the 9 o'clock show. Don't forget to tip your waitress.


Justin

pretty slick there... its 2am here... can you do a 3am show?

bizness, colocation at home, soon you will require a mansion and you will living in the matrix between servers and computers :D hehe